On Saturday, November 22, 2025, at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, the Utah Utes (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) face off against the Kansas State Wildcats (5-5, 4-3 Big 12) in a game that could define both teams’ seasons — and alter the College Football Playoff landscape. Oddsmakers have installed Utah as a 17.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 52.5, but the real story isn’t just the spread — it’s the stakes. For Utah, this isn’t just another win. It’s a lifeline. For Kansas State, it’s a chance to crash the party.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Stats Suggest
Utah enters the game ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll and No. 13 in the Coaches Poll, but two spots outside the 12-team College Football Playoff field. Their path to the postseason isn’t just about winning — it’s about dominating. As Pete Mundo of Heartland College Sports put it in his November 20 analysis video: "They’ve got to win. They’ve got to win big as well. They can’t just go into these games and... win by a field goal or a touchdown." The CFP selection committee has made it clear: close wins don’t move the needle anymore. Utah’s 8-2 record looks solid, but their wins over Oklahoma State and TCU were by single digits. This game against a struggling Kansas State team is their chance to send a message — loud and clear.The Numbers Don’t Lie: Utah’s Rushing Machine vs. Kansas State’s Fractured Defense
The Utah Utes boast the nation’s second-ranked rushing offense, averaging 278.4 yards per game. At the center of it all is running back Wayshawn Parker, who averages 7.1 yards per carry on outside runs — second only to Oregon and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Kansas State’s defense? They rank 95th in FBS against outside runs, allowing 5.3 yards per carry. That’s not a mismatch — it’s a demolition waiting to happen. Kansas State’s offensive struggles are just as glaring. Quarterback Avery Johnson has thrown 11 interceptions this season and completed just 56% of his passes. Their passing game has been inconsistent at best, and Utah’s defense, ranked 10th nationally in scoring defense (15.6 points per game), is built to punish turnover-prone offenses. According to Sports Illustrated, Utah’s defensive line has recorded 32 tackles for loss this season — more than any other team in the Big 12.Expert Predictions: From Close Calls to Blowouts
Even the analysts can’t agree on how bad it’ll get — but they all agree Utah will win.- Cole Carmody of 247Sports’ GoPowercat forecasts Utah 28, Kansas State 20 — the most conservative prediction.
- Sports Illustrated leans toward Utah 41, Kansas State 20, citing Utah’s offensive line as the key.
- Pete Mundo offers two projections: 42-20 on YouTube, 48-27 in print.
- 247Sports’ Fitz’s Keys predicts 34-17, warning Kansas State faces "a much more severe test" against Utah’s physical style under head coach Kyle Whittingham.
Betting Trends and the Hidden Story Behind the Lines
The betting market isn’t just reflecting talent — it’s reflecting history. Kansas State is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. They’ve gone OVER the total in 16 of their last 19 games as underdogs — a sign they’re either outgunned or can’t keep pace. Utah, meanwhile, is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points this season. Their offense has scored 40+ points in six of their last eight games. The OVER is 9-2 in Utah’s last 11 November games. Winners and Whiners analyst recommends taking Utah -17.5 and the OVER 51.5: "Utah’s offensive line consistently controls the trenches, which should allow them to dictate tempo and wear down Kansas State over four quarters."What’s at Stake Beyond the Scoreboard
For Utah, a win by less than 14 points might not be enough to crack the playoff field. A loss? Their season is over. Even a narrow win could open the door for teams like Oregon or TCU to leapfrog them. Whittingham, who led Utah to a 5-7 record in 2024 — a shocking collapse for a program that reached the playoff in 2021 — needs this one more than ever. For Kansas State, it’s about dignity and survival. A win would make them bowl-eligible for the seventh straight year under head coach Chris Klieman. But their roster is battered. Key offensive linemen are sidelined. Their top running back, Joe Jackson, is playing through injury and serves mostly as a blocker now. According to CJ Online’s Cat Zone scouting report, "They seem way too banged up on both sides of the ball to keep up in this one."
What’s Next?
If Utah wins big — say, 38 points or more — they’ll likely vault into the top 8 of the CFP rankings, setting up a potential showdown with Oklahoma State or Texas in the Big 12 Championship. A close win? They’ll be left watching from home. Kansas State, even in defeat, will likely head to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl — but they’ll be left wondering what could’ve been if their offensive line had stayed healthy.Frequently Asked Questions
How does Utah’s rushing offense compare to other playoff contenders?
Utah’s 278.4 rushing yards per game rank second nationally, behind only Oregon. Only three teams in the current CFP field — Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon — average more than 250 rushing yards. Utah’s ability to control the clock and limit opponent possessions makes them uniquely dangerous in close games. Their offensive line has allowed just 11 sacks all season, the fewest in the Big 12.
Why is Kansas State’s defense so vulnerable to outside runs?
Kansas State’s 95th-ranked defense in outside runs stems from inconsistent edge discipline and a lack of speed at linebacker. Their top two edge rushers, Jalen Thomas and Marcus Jones, have combined for just 3.5 sacks this season. Pro Football Focus grades their defensive ends as 118th and 121st in run-stop percentage. Utah’s zone-read scheme exploits exactly this weakness — and Parker is the perfect weapon to do it.
What’s the historical record between Utah and Kansas State?
Utah leads the all-time series 12-3, including wins in six of the last seven meetings. The last time Kansas State won in Salt Lake City was 2013 — a 31-24 overtime thriller. Since then, Utah has won by an average of 21.5 points per game. The Utes have outscored the Wildcats 212-81 in their last five matchups.
Can Kansas State still make a bowl game if they lose?
Yes — but only if they win this game. Kansas State is currently 5-5. They need six wins to become bowl-eligible. Their final game is against BYU, who is 4-6 and struggling offensively. A loss to Utah would leave them at 5-6, and without a win over BYU, they’d miss out on a bowl for the first time since 2017. Their postseason hopes hinge entirely on Saturday.
What does this game mean for Kyle Whittingham’s legacy?
Whittingham, who’s been at Utah since 2005, has built a program known for disciplined, physical play. After the 5-7 season in 2024, criticism grew over his aging staff and lack of offensive innovation. A dominant win here would silence doubters and position him for a contract extension. A close win? It would be seen as a missed opportunity. A loss? It could trigger major staff changes and end his playoff hopes permanently.